Performance
Since July 1998, we have maintained a track record of all our
recommendations. This track record is readily available on our website,
where visitors can view the individual outcomes of roughly 500 trades. On
the track record page, we outline the total number of trades completed, the
percentage of profitable trades, the average length of time each stock has
been held and the average return, which is based on all our
recommendations.
The table below summarises our long term performance for The Rivkin
Report.
Long Term Track Record (1 July 1998 onwards)
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Total Recommendations: 514
-
Completed Trades: 482
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Average Return per completed trade (non-annualised): 11.2%
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Average Hold Period: 30 weeks
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Open Trades: 32
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Average return per open trade (as at 29/4/08): 12.1%
Performance Calculation Methodology
Results are based on the average buy price (if there are multiple buy
recommendations) and the average sell price (if there are multiple sell
recommendations). Profit figures and returns do not include transaction
costs. Dividends are included where stated. Care is also to taken to ensure
that trades are only recorded if the stock actually trades at our
recommended price.
As many stocks are recommended numerous times, at different prices, we
have endeavoured to be as fair as possible in determining the summary. When
a stock is re-recommended at different prices either above or below the
original purchase price, only the original buy price is considered when
taking into account the entry price for our track record. Accordingly, the
result is either one profit or one loss, as opposed to multiple results. In
a situation where the stock has gone up and subsequent buy recommendations
have been issued at higher prices, only the original, lowest buy price
counts. In a situation where the stock has gone down and subsequent buy
recommendations have been issued at lower prices, only the original,
highest buy price counts. We feel that this system is equitable, in that it
is occasionally to the benefit of our track record and occasionally to the
detriment of our track record.
The exception to this method is when a subsequent recommendation is made
that is an entirely new recommendation of the same stock, as opposed to
merely reiterating the same recommendation, simply at a different price. If
the buy recommendation is supported by different reasons to the original
recommendation, or much time has elapsed between recommendations, they are
considered to be different recommendations. This is often a judgment call,
but is the only fair way of doing things in our view.
Please be aware that these results are not indicative of exactly how the
portfolio of a Rivkin Report member will look. Obviously, one cannot and
will not buy every stock. The results mentioned in no way represent current
recommendations. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
The following PDF file includes a full list of our recommendations since the beginning of 1998. (Last updated 25 June, 2008.)
