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Glossary of Technical Trading Terms

Advance/Decline Line

The Advance/Decline is a widely used indicator used to measure the breadth of a stock market advance or decline. Each day, the number of advancing stocks is compared to the number of declining stocks. If advances outnumber declines, the net total is added to the previous cumulative total. If declines outnumber advances, the net difference is subtracted from the previous cumulative total. The advance/decline line is then compared to the stock average, such as the ASX200. They should trend in the same direction. When the advance/decline line begins to diverge from the stock average, an early indication is given of a possible trend reversal.

Average Winning Trade

This is the average size of our winning trades. This is one measure used when assessing trading performance.

Candlestick Charting

Price data can be displayed in many different ways, from a simple line chart, to the traditional bar charts, to more complex forms such as Point and Figure charts. We will typically use Japanese Candlesticks when displaying price charts.

Candlesticks use the same data available for a standard bar chart, i.e. the open, high, low and close price.

The body of the candle represents the difference between the open and the close price, and will either be white, or shaded black. White candles indicate that prices closed higher than the opening price, whereas a black candle indicates that the prices closed lower than the opening price. The lines above and below the body of the candles are known as wicks or shadows. These lines represent the daily high and low price.

Depending on the shape and colour of the candle, we are able to gauge the current market sentiment for the given timeframe.

The image to on the right (click to enlarge) is an example of a candlestick chart, using the AUD/USD currency pair. As shown, the candle from the 6th of May is black, indicating that the closing price (0.8851) was below the open (0.9062). Furthermore, the long lower shadow shows prices closed well off the intraday low of 0.8716.

Although we have used a daily chart in the above example, candlestick charts can also be used to represent other timeframes, such weeks, and months.

Capital at Risk

Capital at risk is the amount of money we are willing to lose on any one trade. The Rivkin Trading Report risks at most $1000 of capital per trade, based on a trading account size of $50.000. As such, we risk no more than 2% of our equity on any one trade. For a member who has an account size of $10,000, this equates to $200 risk per trade. 

Continuation Pattern

Continuation patterns are price formations that imply a pause or consolidation in the prevailing trend. The most common types are triangles, flags, and pennants. Continuation patterns often provide good entry set-ups to enter a trend.

CRB Commodity Index

The CRB Commodity Index is an arithmetic average of 19 different commodity futures prices. Since inception in 1957, this index has been widely recognised as the leading measure of commodity price direction. This index has undergone numerous revisions over the past 50 years, with the current index weighted heavily to crude oil. The constituent commodities and their respective weights can be seen in the pie chart on the right (click to enlarge).

 

Double Top Reversal

This price pattern displays two prominent peaks. The reversal is complete when the middle trough is broken. The double bottom is the mirror image of the double top.

On the right (click to enlarge) is an example of a double top on the weekly chart of the AUDUSD currency pair.

Elliott Wave Analysis

Elliott Wave Analysis is an approach to market analysis that is based on repetitive wave patterns and the Fibonacci number sequence. An ideal Elliott Wave pattern shows a five wave advance, labelled 1 to 5, followed by a 3 wave decline labelled A-B-C.

Expectancy

Expectancy is a measure of our trading profitability. It is calculated using the win percentage and the average win to average loss ratio.

Assuming a 60% win rate and an average win/loss ratio of 1.4

Expectancy

= (Win%*Average Win)-(Loss%*Average Loss)

= (0.60*1.4)-(0.40*1)

= 0.44

We can expect to make $0.44 per $1 of risk capital, or $440 per trade when risking $1000.

Flag

A flag is a small consolidation range which forms counter to the prevailing trend. 

The chart on the right (click to enlarge) shows an example of a bearish flag on the GBPUSD currency pair.

Fibonacci Numbers

The Fibonacci number sequence (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144.....) is constructed by adding the first two numbers to arrive at the third. The ratio of any number in the sequence to the next largest is 61.8%, which is a popular Fibonacci retracement number. The inverse of this ratio, 38.2% is also a Fibonacci retracement number.

Head and Shoulders Reversal

Head and shoulders are the best known of the reversal patterns. At a market top, three prominent peaks are formed with the middle peak (or head) slightly higher than the other two peaks (shoulders). When the trend line (neckline) connecting the two intervening troughs is broken, the pattern is complete. A bottom pattern is a mirror image of a top and is called an inverse head and shoulders.

Key Reversal Day

In an uptrend, this one day pattern occurs when prices open at new highs, and then close below the previous day’s closing price. In a downtrend, prices open lower and close higher. The wider the price-range on the key reversal day and the heavier the volume, the greater the odds that a reversal is taking place.

The image to on the right (click to enlarge) is a key reversal bar on the weekly sugar futures chart.

Limit Order

A limit order is used when we are only willing to pay up to a certain price. If we are looking to buy, a limit order will be below current prices. An example of using a limit order, is buying a stock on a pullback.

MACD

MACD stands for Moving Average Convergence/Divergence. Although you will only see 2 lines on the chart, the MACD uses three lines in its calculation. The faster (black) line is the difference between two exponentially smoothed moving averages of closing prices, usually a 12 and 26 period. The slower (red) line is called the signal line as is a nine period exponentially smoothed average of the MACD line.

Buy and sell signals are given when the two lines cross, resembling a dual moving-average crossover method. However, the MACD also fluctuates above and below a zero line, like an oscillator. The best buy signals are generated when the prices are well below the zero line (oversold), while the best sell signals when prices are well above the zero line (overbought). Buy signals are shown with a Blue arrow and sell signals in red.

The MACD can also be used for signs of momentum divergence, a technique we will explain in greater depth below. 

Maximum Equity Drawdown

The maximum equity drawdown is the largest distance between the current account balance and the account high level. It is a good measure of the trading account volatility. 

Market Order

A market order is to buy or sell at the current market price. When buying, this will involve accepting the current offer price, and when selling, accepting the current bid price.

Momentum Divergence

There are three types of momentum divergence, type A, B, and C. Type A is the strongest and typically the only type we will use to trade with.

Type-A divergence occurs when a new price extreme is accompanied by a lower swing high on a momentum indicator. It is used to identify trend exhaustion, and potential trend changes, prior to price confirmation.

The chart on the right (click to enlarge) is an example of Type-A bullish divergence. As shown, the recent price low at the end of November was accompanied by a higher low on the slow stochastic. This is used to pick a potential trend change prior to price confirmation, which would only occur on a break above the recent high at 4687. As a reminder, for an uptrend, we need a series of higher lows and higher highs.

One Cancels Other (OCO) Order

The OCO order is used to link our stop loss and target orders once we are in a trade. Once one of the orders is triggered, the other is cancelled. This ensures that we do not leave any unwanted orders in the platform.

Pennant

This continuation price pattern is similar to the flag, except that it is more horizontal and resembles a small symmetrical triangle. Like the flag, the pennant usually lasts from one to three weeks and is typically followed by a resumption of the prior trend.

Resistance

Resistance is simply the opposite of support. It is a level or region where prices have been unable to move above in the past. It is where selling pressure outweighs buying demand. Using the copper price, long-term resistance is found in the US$4.16 to US$4.27 range. 

Reversal Pattern

Price patterns on price charts that usually indicate that a trend reversal is taking place. The best known of the reversal patterns are the head and shoulders and double and triple tops and bottoms.

Risk/Reward Ratio

The risk/reward ratio is the initial payoff potential when we first issue a trade recommendation. It is the ratio of our potential profit to our predetermined risk.

If we risk $1000 on a trade which has a risk/reward ratio of 1.7, we would make $1700 should prices reach our target. 

RSI

The RSI is a popular oscillator developed by Welles Wilder Jr. and described in his self published 1978 book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. The RSI is plotted on a vertical scale from 0 to 100. Values above 70 are considered to be overbought and values below 30, oversold. When prices are over 70 or below 30 and diverge from price action, a warning is given of a possible trend reversal. The RSI usually employs 14 time periods in its calculations.

Stop Order

A stop order can be used to either enter a trade or exit a trade. Assuming we are looking to buy, a stop order sits above current prices. We need price to rally before our order is triggered. Although this type of entry results in buying at a higher price, it ensures that momentum is in our favour when we enter the trade.

A stop order can also be used to exit a trade. This is commonly known as a stop loss.

Support

Support is a level or region where prices have been unable to move below in the past. It is where buying demand for a security outweighs selling pressure. Current support for the USD/JPY currency is in the 88.56 to 88.14 range.

Trend Analysis

Being able to identify the current trend is a cornerstone of technical analysis. In short, an uptrend is defined as a series of higher lows and higher highs, while a downtrend is a series of lower highs and lower lows. Trend analysis is fractal, meaning that trends can be found within trends of a larger degree. To explain this concept in a little more detail, prices may currently be in short-term downtrend, which is simply a corrective move of a larger degree uptrend.

In addition to determining the direction of the trend, we need to also ascertain the strength of the trend. There are several indicators that we can use for this which we will discuss later, however based purely on price action, overlapping waves indicate that the trend is weak, while impulsive waves indicate the trend is strong.

The image to on the right (click to enlarge) is a weekly chart of the US Dollar Index. As shown, the series of higher lows and higher highs suggest prices are currently in an uptrend.

Triangle

Triangles come in several different variations, including symmetrical, descending, and ascending. Prices typically break out in the direction of the broader trend.

The chart on the right (click to enlarge) is of the ASX200 depicts an example of a symmetrical triangle.

US Dollar Index

This Index indicates the general international value of the US Dollar, by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and 6 of the world’s major currencies, including the Euro (57.6%), the Japanese yen (13.6%), the British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), the Swedish krona (4.2%), and the Swiss France (3.6%). We use the US Dollar Index as a general proxy for currency market direction.

Volume

Volume is simply the number of shares traded within a given time period. Although we mainly focus on price, we use volume as a supportive indicator. Typically, volume should expand in the direction of the trend, while contract when prices are correcting or trading within a range. As an example, we would view a high closing white candle on high volume more bullish than a high closing white candle on low to medium volume.

Volume is displayed on the right (click to enlarge) the price chart as a histogram. Blue volume bars coincide with an ‘up bar’ or white candle, while red volume bars coincide with ‘down bars’ or black candles.

Volatility (VIX) Index

The VIX index reflects a market estimate of future volatility, based on the weighted average of the implied volatilities for a wide range of strikes of options on the S&P500 Index.

Wave Chart

Wave charts are designed to filter price movements by linking intermediate highs and lows based on a set percentage move. They enable us to easily see the current direction and strength of the market trend. 

The Crude Oil candlestick chart on the right (click to enlarge) has been overlaid with a 5% wave chart. 

Win Percentage

The ratio of winning trades to losing trades.