Crude Enters Bull Market

It was a relatively quiet trading session although both the Dow and S&P 500 managed to eke out small gains. The market is perhaps taking some time to digest Trump’s tax plan although it should be noted that changes are likely in order to get it through the Congress. The ASX continues to track sideways although we are now at the lower end of the recent trading range. As the biggest stock in the ASX 200, The Commonwealth Bank (CBA) is dragging the market down as its share price sits just above year to date lows.

Crude oil has entered bull market territory after rallying 20% from its lows although it had pulled back from a high of just above $52 per barrel. Energy stocks have done well on the back of the oil price rally with the energy select sector ETF (NYSE:XLE) having rallied 10% from its recent lows. Rebalancing of the oversupplied market appears to be well underway although it is generally accepted that any rallies will be capped as a result of increased production from US shale if prices go much higher.  

US bond yields have been rising recently with the 30-year yield moving towards 3% again. This is coming on the back of increased probabilities of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December which is not likely to be derailed unless a major economic deterioration occurs between now and then.

The final estimate of US 2nd quarter GDP was released yesterday and was revised higher to 3.1% compared to 3.0% expected. Tonight we get England’s current account and Canada’s GDP for the month of July.   

Data Releases:

–    UK Current Account 6:30pm AEST

–    Canada GDP 10:30pm AEST

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This article was written by William O’Loughlin – Investment Analyst, Rivkin Securities Pty Ltd. Enquiries can be made via william.oloughlin@rivkin.com.au or by phoning +612 8302 3633.